Marty Halfon January 22, 2025
The housing market is poised for a dynamic year in 2025, shaped by shifting affordability, regional job growth, and evolving buyer preferences. Drawing on insights from Zillow, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and industry forecasts, here's your updated guide to navigating the 2025 landscape.
Experts like Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist, predict a "goldilocks" equilibrium: balanced demand, stabilizing inventory, and moderated price gains of 2–4% nationally. Mortgage rates are expected to stabilize near 6% by late 2025, down from 2024's highs, offering relief to buyers. However, regional disparities will dominate:
Based on Zillow's growth metrics, NAR's hot spots, and Realtor.com's recovery analysis, these markets combine job growth, affordability, and inventory resilience:
Why: Surging employment outpaces housing supply, driving competition.
Why: Affordable median prices ($275K) and steady 3.4% home value growth.
Why: Strong price growth (4.2%) and low locked-in homeowners.
Why: Banking sector strength and 3.2% home value growth.
Why: New construction eases supply constraints; 13.2% price surge forecasted.
Why: Tech-driven job growth and high millennial buyer demand.
Why: Affordability and net migration boost sales.
Why: Military hubs and remote-work appeal drive 27.1% sales growth.
Why: Government-backed loans and coastal affordability.
Why: Outdoor lifestyle and 2.8% annual home value growth.
National Forecast: Prices rise 2–4%, with Sun Belt outliers like Phoenix hitting double digits.
At-Risk Markets: San Francisco (-1.7%), Portland (0.3%), and Austin (-0.4%) face stagnation or declines due to oversupply or high costs.
No Crash in Sight: Tight inventory and high homeowner equity (over $17 trillion) prevent a 2008-style collapse.
While mid-sized cities dominate growth, luxury enclaves like Beverly Hills remain resilient. High-net-worth buyers prioritize:
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and real estate data firm Zillow, the 2025 housing market is not headed for a recession, with home prices expected to rise 2-4% nationally and home sales in 2025 projected to increase 7-12% year-over-year.
While markets like San Francisco may see declines, the top 10 hottest housing markets—including Phoenix, Charlotte, and Indianapolis—will thrive due to job growth, new residents, and typical home values remaining below the national average. Mortgage rates are expected to stabilize near 6%, easing competition among buyers as new construction addresses housing supply constraints.
Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist, highlights sustained demand for housing, advising home buyers to partner with a local real estate agent to navigate varying local markets. With no housing market crash anticipated, 2025 offers opportunities to buy a home in relatively affordable, high-growth metros through the end of 2025.
2025 rewards those who act strategically. Partner with a NAR-affiliated agent, target markets with job-fueled demand, and diversify into sustainable or tech-driven assets. The future of real estate is regional—choose wisely.
For deeper insights, explore Zillow's 2025 forecast and NAR's hot spots report.
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Specializing in luxury residential and commercial real estate across the greater Los Angeles area, Marty collaborates with buyers and sellers alike. From Beverly Hills to the Pacific Palisades, Marty's unparalleled knowledge and expertise set him apart. His early career focused on enhancing and innovatively renovating properties, providing him with a distinctive insight into the market.